Jordan Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the far-right National Rally (RN), is on the fast track to becoming France's youngest president. With the RN's strong lead in polls and Bardella's solid approval ratings, the stage is set for him to succeed Emmanuel Macron by spring 2027. But what makes Bardella so appealing to the French electorate? In my opinion, it's his ability to adapt to various voters while staying true to the RN's core policies. However, this adaptability also raises questions about his ideological make-up and the potential consequences of his leadership. As an expert commentator, I'll delve into the fascinating world of French politics and explore the implications of Bardella's rise to power.
A Political Chameleon
Bardella's appeal lies in his chameleon-like ability to adapt to different voter groups. He employs standard RN anti-immigration, populist rhetoric to appeal to old-school Le Pen supporters, while also speaking to the youth vote through his social media channels. His relationship with Italian socialite Princess Maria Carolina of Bourbon-Two Sicilies adds a glamorous edge to his image, but he frequently references his modest upbringing to connect with a wider electorate. This adaptability makes him an 'incredible blank canvas' on which different groups project their ideal image of what their candidate for 2027 should be.
However, this adaptability also raises questions about Bardella's ideological make-up. As lecturer Pierre-Henri Tavoillot points out, 'His ideological make-up is unclear... and his smooth image allows him to cast a wide net.' This lack of clarity could be a double-edged sword, as it may allow Bardella to appeal to a broad spectrum of voters, but it also raises concerns about his commitment to the RN's core policies.
A Lockstep with Le Pen
Despite his adaptability, Bardella has rarely strayed from RN policy, especially on contentious issues like immigration. He wants to curtail benefits for immigrants and end birthright citizenship, and has drawn a clear distinction between those who reject republican institutions and values and those who strive to become French. In a BBC interview, Bardella insisted that mass immigration was 'shaking the balance of European countries, of Western societies, and namely French society,' and said his first move as president would be to trigger a referendum on immigration.
However, this stance raises questions about the constitutionality of such a referendum. As Bardella himself acknowledges, immigration is not among the subjects on which the French constitution permits referendums, meaning a constitutional amendment would be required first. This lengthy process would require an absolute majority in Parliament or enough allies, which could be a significant barrier to his plans.
'Change Everything Without Destroying Anything'
Bardella's approach to the EU and Nato also reflects his broader ambition to 'change everything [in the EU] without destroying anything.' He views the EU as 'profoundly old-fashioned' and 'obsolete,' and has pledged to renegotiate some of the terms of France's membership. He wants to keep France in the EU's electricity market while pushing to renegotiate its price-setting rules to lower bills, and has even proposed cutting France's contribution to the EU budget by half.
However, these ambitions face significant barriers, not least the fact that the EU's long-term budget is set to be rubber-stamped months before the 2027 French presidential election. Nevertheless, Bardella's intentions reflect his broader goal of reshaping the EU without causing a complete breakdown.
Building Ties with Europe's Nationalist Right
Bardella has also been building ties with Europe's nationalist right, liaising with Italy's Giorgia Meloni and Poland's opposition PiS, with the stated goal of forging a 'new European architecture' and the 'largest possible' nationalist bloc in Brussels. However, he has also said he sees 'common ground' with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and has worked to distance himself from US President Donald Trump, whom he has called 'erratic.'
This nuanced approach to international relations highlights Bardella's strategic thinking and his awareness of the complex geopolitical landscape in Europe. However, it also raises questions about his commitment to a unified nationalist bloc and his ability to navigate the tensions between different nationalist movements.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Jordan Bardella's rise to power as France's youngest president is a fascinating development in French politics. His adaptability and strategic thinking make him a compelling figure, but also raise questions about his ideological make-up and the potential consequences of his leadership. As an expert commentator, I believe that Bardella's success will depend on his ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape in Europe and to balance his ambitions for the RN with the broader interests of France and the EU. Only time will tell if he can rise to the challenge and shape the future of French politics in a meaningful way.
